Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta.  As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County.  It was incorporated in 1910.  Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School.  Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Market stats for Lilburn, January, 2010, indicate that there are 359 (January 31st) properties on the market. Overall, there is about a 10 month supply of properties, with a slight acceleration in sales during October and November, but slowing in December and January.

In the sub-$200k arena, there are 214 listings, with about an 10 month supply. The same pattrern hold that sales accelerated through October and November and slowed after that.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 128 listings for sale, and about 10.5 months of supply. Even though the tax credit for First time Home Buyers wasn’t as important to this segment, it still affected the sales distribution.

From $400k to $600k, there are 11 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 11 months, and it is definately slowing.  Of course, there is a seasonal dip around the Holidays and the pick-up isn’t until March and April.

Above $600k, there are 6 listings, but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory.  There have been two sales in the last three months, but prior, there had only been one other sale in 2009 (February).  Two of the listings are above $800k, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for that range…

From LaneBailey.com.  I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

Some quick county-wide numbers…

• January, 2010 sales were 352 homes.  This is down 11.1% from the 396 homes in January, 2009,  That was down 14.7% from the 464 homes in January,2008.  (There might still be some stragglers that haven’t been entered yet… but there shouldn’t be many.  These numbers are as of 2/23/10)
• New listings were 1526 homes for January, 2010.  This is down 21.9% (1953 new listings) from January, 2009.  That was down 17.3% (2363 new listings) from January 2008.
• Days on Market were down by 19 days to 87. This is good news, but I honestly don’t put much faith in the DoM number.

Overall Absorption Rates…

Take a look at this post for a quick explanation of Absorption Rates.  Listings increased for January, compared to December, 2009.  There were 5612 listings in January, 5219 listings in December.  The “Months of Inventory” numbers for the 12 month, 6 month and 3 month averages are 10.12, 8.80 and 8.68, respectively.

What this means is that sales seem to be slowing.  However, January is generally a tough month.  In December, contracts usually slow, although closings remain fairly high (November contracts).  So, January always looks a little weaker in the 6 month and 3 month averages.  But, January also showed more months of inventory in the 12 month average, compared to December (8.03 months of inventory).

It seems like I say it every month, but next month will be interesting…  One of the reasons we have to “kick the can down the road” is that we are only really able to look in a rear view mirror at sales data.  Imagine trying to drive around a track only looking out the back window.  Whenever there is a sharp turn, you won’t know until you are in the ditch…

Under $200,000…

This range continues to be the strongest, but it is weaker than it was last month.  However, the sales season doesn’t really pick up until March (February contracts).  There were 251 sales in this price range, with just under 3100 listings (3089).  In the last year, sales peaked at around 540 in both June and July, and then came back up to 532 for October.  They slid to 414 in December.  In January of 2009, there were 270 single family homes sold.

$200,000 to $400,000…

We certainly don’t have the strength here of the lower range, but it isn’t terrible.  Looking at the 3 month average, there is about 13 1/2 months of inventory.  There were 93 sales with 1861 listings.  Last year there were 103 sales in this price range.  The same pattern held for sales (strongest in July, then June and October).  As with the under $200k range, the tax credits seemed to push sales in the fall.  As with the under $200k, I expect that some sales were cannabalized from this spring by the first tax credit.

$400,000 to $600,000…

Here is where we see the car drive off the cliff.  The 3 month average points to having almost 29 months of inventory on the market.  There were only 4 sales in this range for January 2010 (20 sales in January 2009) and 359 homes on the market.  May and November were the strongest months for sales.  I think we are seeing nervousness about jobs and taxes here.  There are few first time home buyers that would meet the criteria for the tax credit here, and the $6500 credit wouldn’t figure prominently in the plans of buyers at this level.

$600,000 to $800,000…

Things are actually slightly better in this range than in the $400k-$600k range.  There is still 27 months of inventory, but there were 3 sales this year compared to just 1 for the same month last year.  There were 127 properties on the market.  In this range, just a few extra sales one way or the other can have a dramatic effect on the statistics.  I also don’t believe the tax credits have had much affect here.

$800,000 to $1,000,000…

The three month average points to just over 3 years of inventory at this price range.  With 51 homes on the market, there was only 1 sale in this range in January… none in January 2009.  In fact, there have only been around 25 sales in the last year, county-wide.  And, while 6-7 months of inventory is considered balanced in the lower price ranges, because of the smaller pool here, we usually see higher numbers… but 3 years is still obviously slow.

Over $1,000,000…

Nothing to see here…  There are 125 listings and there were no sales last month at this price.  There were 2 for the same month the previous year.  The three month average yield a little over 6 years of inventory.  There were only 42 sales in this range in the last 12 months.  And I don’t think I’ve seen the Absorption Rate go much below 4-5 years of inventory…

Hot and Not…

• Norcross is hot.  Just 5.1 months of inventory in the under $200k range…  And only 9 months of inventory in the $1M+ range!
• Duluth has just 6.3 months of inventory for the $400k-$600k range…
• Lilburn is lagging right now, with 10 months of inventory for the under $200k level… and while there have just 6 months of inventory for the $600k-$800k range, there have onyl been two sales in that range in the last 3 months (only 4 listings).
• Duluth isn’t doing so hot for the other price ranges.
• Lawrenceville, Buford and Lilburn are the big laggards in the $200k-$400k range at 17, 19 and 19 months of inventory, respectively.
• Overall, Buford is the weakest of the markets I track, at just under 13 months of inventory.

The markets I closely track are Buford, Duluth, Lawrenceville, Lilburn, Norcross, Sugar Hill and Suwanee.  for these areas, I am tracking them by mailing address, not city limits.  Buford, Duluth and Suwanee also include sales from counties other than Gwinnett.  I also track the overall numbers for Gwinnett County.

I am excited about the growth prospects for Gwinnett County, GA.  In the last few weeks we have had another announcement of a company moving their headquarters to Gwinnett.  We have a wonderful quality of life, and there are abundant recreation opportunities…  The Gwinnett Braves and Gladiators, Lake Lanier, one of the best parks departments in the country and proximity to all that metro Atlanta has to offer make this a GREAT place to live and work.  I’ve been proud to call Gwinnett County home for most of the last 21 years.

from GwinnettGarageGuy.com

During the month of February, as well as the end of January, I spent each Friday afternoon volunteering to talk about business and economics with a bunch of 4th Graders.  This was in connection with Junior Achievement.

It might sound like pulling teeth, but it was really a blast.  The kids were great.  They were engaged and interested.  In fact, by the end of the course, they were greeting my by name as I entered the room…  I was late on the last day, and one of the kids commented that she “was afraid I wasn’t going to be there.”

The whole experience was immensely rewarding.

Just to be clear, these weren’t hand picked students or a special class of high achievers.  These were average kids in an average class…

While the details of the classes aren’t important, there is something else that IS very important.  The important part is that these kids WANT to learn and WANT to have adult come in and talk with them about the larger world.  It helps to be entertaining and to speak to issues and examples to which they can relate.

And there is something else that is important…

As people that are involved in business on a daily basis, we can help these ids understand how business works and how the economic system can benefit them and society as a whole.

It doesn’t matter if you choose to invest your time with Junior Achievement or some other worthy organization, giving to the kids is very rewarding and the payback is exceptional.

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I ran across an article that parses IRS data on which states are gaining population and which are losing population.  GA is doing pretty well on the list… only a couple of states gained more population that we did here in GA.  Texas and North Carolina picked up more households than the 37,000+ Georgia picked up.  The big losers were Michigan and New York.

The information was assembled by the AP from IRS data points.  Here is a link back to the article.

The fun part is figuring out why…  Jobs, taxes and corporate relocation would be the things that would pop to the front of my mind.  Michigan has been getting pounded for a decade on the jobs front.  As the economy slowed down, that wasn’t improved.  New York, New Jersey and California have all increased taxes on the wealthy, and there has been a flight to lower tax states like Florida and Nevada as a result.  Texas has also been very business friendly.  North Carolina has become a central point for tech oriented companies, and might even get a bigger reputation that Silicon Valley in CA.

Georgia has reasonable taxes and a friendly business climate.  Hartsfield Airport in Atlanta connects to the world in a way that few airports elsewhere can… Atlanta is VERY connected.  The climate is mild, but not as hot as FL during the summer…

But there is no question that the I-85 corridor, extending through Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina is one of the best business corridors in the country right now…

I’m here for you.  I have been getting these emails for years from builders promoting their inventory of homes.  In some cases, they are offering incentives to agents to bring buyers to their communities.  In other cases they are offing incentives to buyers.  Sometimes, there are both…

I finally figured out how to help people find those deals, or know why their agent might be “hot” on a particular community.

I have sold some new construction in the area, and know how to help a buyer get the best deals, so I thought this might be a good outgrowth of that.

Let me also state…  The cost of the buyer’s agent is built into the cost of the home.  It is very rare that builders cut a better price for unrepresented buyers.  There are a variety of reasons.  One of the biggest is that builders are reluctant to cut the price of their homes.  If they do, those lower prices show up in the comps that will be pulled for an appraisal.  That lowers the value of the community…

So, if you are interested in a new home in or around Gwinnett County, GA, give me a call. Also, feel free to subscribe to Builders.LaneBailey.com.  That is my new site to track builder deals.  These are basically the unfiltered flyers that the builders and their agents send out.

The agents on site are very nice people.  I have worked with a lot of them.  But remember, they are contractually obligated to represent the best interest of THEIR client.  And their client is the builder.  They aren’t going to tell you that the community is in trouble, or what dangers that might bring.  They aren’t going to tell you if there is another community with a better deal.  They aren’t going to tell you if there are factors in the community that might affect resale value.  You need an agent on YOUR side.

from LaneBailey.com

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Last year I wrote about Senate Bill 55 in the Georgia Senate.  Basically, the bill required the Counties to include foreclosures in assessments.  Previously, assessments for taxes excluded foreclosures, so they (falsly?) increased values and tax revenue to the counties.

While that makes it tough for the counties, it is a needed break for home owners.  The counties complained that they would lose revenues… well, the people are losing revenue, too.  They have to suck it up.

In the last year, the bill quietly passed and was signed into law by Governor Sonny Perdue.

Here is the link to the original post.

from Lanebailey.com

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In this post, he lays out the reasons he sees why there will be increased volitility in the mortgage and housing sectors.  Basically, since the Fed is currently slated to stop buying mortgages next month…

It is worth a read…

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Originally built in 1999, the Super Target located in the shadow of Stone Mountain, next to the old Olympic Tennis Venue, will be closing as of January 30th, 2010.  Faced with declining profits from the store, Target is pulling the plug.

Most affected are the residents of the Park Springs continuing care center.  Many were able to walk to the Target store, and with the closing, will need to find alternate places to fill prescriptions and buy groceries.  There is a Super WalMart just a mile or so away, but it is going to be too far for the seniors to easily get to.

The store, which sits right at the county line between Gwinnett and Dekalb Counties, has been a great alternative to the nearby WalMart.  Ironically, the WalMart, which has done VERY well, was slated for closure in 2003.  Instead, because of the activism of the nearby community, it was expanded from 102,000 square feet to 210,000sf.  In fact, several neighboring stores had to be moved in order for the WalMart to expand.

Many area residents have been trying, through petitions and emails, to get Target to change their mind.  So far, they haven’t prevailed.  It will be sad to see the store go.  It is surprising the store doesn’t do better.  It is a very convenient location, just of US78 at West Park Place, but it doesn’t have signage or visibility from the highway.  It is also very close to several upscale communities including Smokerise and Mountain Park.

The remaining locations that are closest, Snellville, Tucker (Northlake) and Lithonia are all in the 10 mile range.  It isn’t likely that they will pick up significant business from the closure of this store.

Hopefully the space won’t remain empty for long.

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A while back, I wrote that I had volunteered with Junior Achievement.  Up until now we hadn’t been able to find an assignment that was reasonably close… but that changed this week.

I am now the JA volunteer for Ms. Ferrer-Adames 4th Grade class at Nesbitt Elementary School in Gwinnett County.  and I recently had our first class together.  It was a lot of fun.

For our first meeting, we introduced ourselves to each other and spent a few minutes talking about businesses and entrepreneurialism.  The kids were very engaging and had a lot to contribute.  After just 50 minutes of class time, I have to say that I am very excited about the prospects of the next generation.

The program we are doing is called My Region.  To begin with, we talked about what makes a region, as well as resources, natural, human and capital.  The kids were great at coming up with examples of each of the types of resources and grasping the concepts behind them.

Next week we are going to start coming up with business examples and deciding what regions they would be best suited for.  I’m really looking forward to it.

And next week I will get some actual pictures…  ;^ )

from LaneBailey.com

The biggest thing in housing in the last few months has been the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit.  It has had a GIANT pull on the market, and when it “expired” (it was renewed and expanded before it actually expired, but the effect seemed to expire) it altered the direction of the market… as it did when it was enacted.

Let’s get a few numbers for Lilburn out of the way…

• There were 384 listings as of 12/31/2009
• In November, there were 36 sales
• The Absorption Rates for Lilburn break down as follows:
  • 12 month average – 10.04 months of inventory
  • 6 month average – 8.35 months of inventory
  • 3 month average – 9.76 months of inventory

The link above explains Absorption Rates more fully, but basically, it tells us how long it would take to sell all of the property on the market at the current rate.

Sales for Lilburn in November were up 38.5% compared to November 2008.  This was after October was up 15% year over year.  Days on Market had also dropped by 7 days to 96 days.

By Segment…

The market is divided up into six segments, but two of them didn’t have any activity in the last 12 months.

Under $200k…

There were 227 listings and 24 sales in November.  Looking back the 12mo/6mo/3mo Absorption Rates were 8.7/7.4/9.1 months.  I expected the 3mo rate to be a little better because of the accelerating sales, but that wasn’t the case.  The Under $200k segment is the strongest, though.

$200k – $400k…

There were 133 listings and 9 sales in November.  The 12mo/6mo/3mo Absorption Rates were 12.7/9.9/10.5 months.  I also expected the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit to have a little more impact on the 3mo rate, but sales began to slow anyway.  The $200k – $400k segment looked like it was staging a rebound.  Hopefully it will pick up again after the Holidays.

$400k – $600k…

There were 15 listings and 2 sales in November.  The 12mo/6mo/3mo Absorption Rates were 10/9/11.3 months.  This segment wasn’t as affected by the tax credit as lower priced homes.  The change in absorption rates looks like it might be a little more seasonal…  As a sneak peak, the December numbers look a lot better so far (I won’t have final numbers for a couple of weeks).

$600k – $800k, $800k – $1m and Over $1m…

There were a total of 9 listings and 2 sales in the last 12 months.  The absorption Rates can be calculated, but they really aren’t meaningful.  One extra sale or one missed sale make a HUGE swing in the data.  Also, these homes are not likely to be affected by the old tax credit or the newer expanded tax credit.

Click here to search Lilburn properties.