For Sellers Category
Lilburn Market Report, March, 2010
March 9th, 2010 Categories: For Buyers, For Sellers, Lilburn
Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.
Market stats for Lilburn, January, 2010, indicate that there are 359 (January 31st) properties on the market. Overall, there is about a 10 month supply of properties, with a slight acceleration in sales during October and November, but slowing in December and January.
In the sub-$200k arena, there are 214 listings, with about an 10 month supply. The same pattrern hold that sales accelerated through October and November and slowed after that.
Between $200k and $400k, there are 128 listings for sale, and about 10.5 months of supply. Even though the tax credit for First time Home Buyers wasn’t as important to this segment, it still affected the sales distribution.
From $400k to $600k, there are 11 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 11 months, and it is definately slowing. Of course, there is a seasonal dip around the Holidays and the pick-up isn’t until March and April.
Above $600k, there are 6 listings, but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. There have been two sales in the last three months, but prior, there had only been one other sale in 2009 (February). Two of the listings are above $800k, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for that range…
From LaneBailey.com. I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.
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Gwinnett Market Reports from January…
March 2nd, 2010 Categories: For Buyers, For Sellers, Lilburn
The real estate market for Gwinnett County is in a state of flux. There are wide variations between different location throughout the county, as well as different price strata. There are a few themes that are readily apparent, but some locations and price ranges are standouts (good or bad)…
Some quick county-wide numbers…
- January, 2010 sales were 352 homes. This is down 11.1% from the 396 homes in January, 2009, That was down 14.7% from the 464 homes in January,2008. (There might still be some stragglers that haven’t been entered yet… but there shouldn’t be many. These numbers are as of 2/23/10)
- New listings were 1526 homes for January, 2010. This is down 21.9% (1953 new listings) from January, 2009. That was down 17.3% (2363 new listings) from January 2008.
- Days on Market were down by 19 days to 87. This is good news, but I honestly don’t put much faith in the DoM number.
Overall Absorption Rates…
Take a look at this post for a quick explanation of Absorption Rates. Listings increased for January, compared to December, 2009. There were 5612 listings in January, 5219 listings in December. The “Months of Inventory” numbers for the 12 month, 6 month and 3 month averages are 10.12, 8.80 and 8.68, respectively.
What this means is that sales seem to be slowing. However, January is generally a tough month. In December, contracts usually slow, although closings remain fairly high (November contracts). So, January always looks a little weaker in the 6 month and 3 month averages. But, January also showed more months of inventory in the 12 month average, compared to December (8.03 months of inventory).
It seems like I say it every month, but next month will be interesting… One of the reasons we have to “kick the can down the road” is that we are only really able to look in a rear view mirror at sales data. Imagine trying to drive around a track only looking out the back window. Whenever there is a sharp turn, you won’t know until you are in the ditch…
Under $200,000…
This range continues to be the strongest, but it is weaker than it was last month. However, the sales season doesn’t really pick up until March (February contracts). There were 251 sales in this price range, with just under 3100 listings (3089). In the last year, sales peaked at around 540 in both June and July, and then came back up to 532 for October. They slid to 414 in December. In January of 2009, there were 270 single family homes sold.
$200,000 to $400,000…
We certainly don’t have the strength here of the lower range, but it isn’t terrible. Looking at the 3 month average, there is about 13 1/2 months of inventory. There were 93 sales with 1861 listings. Last year there were 103 sales in this price range. The same pattern held for sales (strongest in July, then June and October). As with the under $200k range, the tax credits seemed to push sales in the fall. As with the under $200k, I expect that some sales were cannabalized from this spring by the first tax credit.
$400,000 to $600,000…
Here is where we see the car drive off the cliff. The 3 month average points to having almost 29 months of inventory on the market. There were only 4 sales in this range for January 2010 (20 sales in January 2009) and 359 homes on the market. May and November were the strongest months for sales. I think we are seeing nervousness about jobs and taxes here. There are few first time home buyers that would meet the criteria for the tax credit here, and the $6500 credit wouldn’t figure prominently in the plans of buyers at this level.
$600,000 to $800,000…
Things are actually slightly better in this range than in the $400k-$600k range. There is still 27 months of inventory, but there were 3 sales this year compared to just 1 for the same month last year. There were 127 properties on the market. In this range, just a few extra sales one way or the other can have a dramatic effect on the statistics. I also don’t believe the tax credits have had much affect here.
$800,000 to $1,000,000…
The three month average points to just over 3 years of inventory at this price range. With 51 homes on the market, there was only 1 sale in this range in January… none in January 2009. In fact, there have only been around 25 sales in the last year, county-wide. And, while 6-7 months of inventory is considered balanced in the lower price ranges, because of the smaller pool here, we usually see higher numbers… but 3 years is still obviously slow.
Over $1,000,000…
Nothing to see here… There are 125 listings and there were no sales last month at this price. There were 2 for the same month the previous year. The three month average yield a little over 6 years of inventory. There were only 42 sales in this range in the last 12 months. And I don’t think I’ve seen the Absorption Rate go much below 4-5 years of inventory…
Hot and Not…
- Norcross is hot. Just 5.1 months of inventory in the under $200k range… And only 9 months of inventory in the $1M+ range!
- Duluth has just 6.3 months of inventory for the $400k-$600k range…
- Lilburn is lagging right now, with 10 months of inventory for the under $200k level… and while there have just 6 months of inventory for the $600k-$800k range, there have onyl been two sales in that range in the last 3 months (only 4 listings).
- Duluth isn’t doing so hot for the other price ranges.
- Lawrenceville, Buford and Lilburn are the big laggards in the $200k-$400k range at 17, 19 and 19 months of inventory, respectively.
- Overall, Buford is the weakest of the markets I track, at just under 13 months of inventory.
The markets I closely track are Buford, Duluth, Lawrenceville, Lilburn, Norcross, Sugar Hill and Suwanee. for these areas, I am tracking them by mailing address, not city limits. Buford, Duluth and Suwanee also include sales from counties other than Gwinnett. I also track the overall numbers for Gwinnett County.
I am excited about the growth prospects for Gwinnett County, GA. In the last few weeks we have had another announcement of a company moving their headquarters to Gwinnett. We have a wonderful quality of life, and there are abundant recreation opportunities… The Gwinnett Braves and Gladiators, Lake Lanier, one of the best parks departments in the country and proximity to all that metro Atlanta has to offer make this a GREAT place to live and work. I’ve been proud to call Gwinnett County home for most of the last 21 years.
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Interesting article on where people are moving within the US…
February 16th, 2010 Categories: For Buyers, For Sellers
I ran across an article that parses IRS data on which states are gaining population and which are losing population. GA is doing pretty well on the list… only a couple of states gained more population that we did here in GA. Texas and North Carolina picked up more households than the 37,000+ Georgia picked up. The big losers were Michigan and New York.
The information was assembled by the AP from IRS data points. Here is a link back to the article. Read the rest of this entry »
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Flashback Friday and the County Assessors facing reality
February 9th, 2010 Categories: For Buyers, For Sellers
- Image via Wikipedia
Last year I wrote about Senate Bill 55 in the Georgia Senate. Basically, the bill required the Counties to include foreclosures in assessments. Previously, assessments for taxes excluded foreclosures, so they (falsly?) increased values and tax revenue to the counties.
While that makes it tough for the counties, it is a needed break for home owners. The counties complained that they would lose revenues… well, the people are losing revenue, too. They have to suck it up.
In the last year, the bill quietly passed and was signed into law by Governor Sonny Perdue.
Here is the link to the original post.
from Lanebailey.com
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Mortgage and Housing Volatility… Over?
February 2nd, 2010 Categories: For Buyers, For Sellers
Over on one of my other blogs, I re-blogged a post from Jeff Corbett. He is VERY involved int eh mortgage and housing industry and loves diving into the ugly underbelly of the industry.
- Image by The Life of Bryan via Flickr
In this post, he lays out the reasons he sees why there will be increased volitility in the mortgage and housing sectors. Basically, since the Fed is currently slated to stop buying mortgages next month…
It is worth a read…
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Lilburn Market Report for December 2009
January 12th, 2010 Categories: For Buyers, For Sellers, Lilburn
This has certainly been an interesting year in real estate. And we are still staring at the tea leaves trying to see the direction of the market and figure out what the future holds.
The biggest thing in housing in the last few months has been the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. It has had a GIANT pull on the market, and when it “expired” (it was renewed and expanded before it actually expired, but the effect seemed to expire) it altered the direction of the market… as it did when it was enacted.
Let’s get a few numbers for Lilburn out of the way… Read the rest of this entry »
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Absorption Rate? What is this about?
December 7th, 2009 Categories: For Buyers, For Sellers
There are some terms that we toss around in the real estate industry as if people knew what we were talking about… Absorption Rate is one of those terms.
It isn’t complicated, but if you are unfamiliar with the term, if can be confusing. And unlike “Bacon Double Cheeseburger”, it isn’t really self explanatory.
What is Absorption Rate? Read the rest of this entry »
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Mold, not just for bread and cheese anymore…
September 7th, 2009 Categories: For Buyers, For Sellers
Image via Wikipedia
Ok, mold has NEVER just been for bread and cheese. and while it can be useful stuff… when it is penicillin… the rest of the time, it is NOT something we want in our bodies.
So, Mold and Real Estate?
I’m seeing it more and more. Actually, it started a few years ago, but as more foreclosures come on the market, mold gets to be a bigger issue. Read the rest of this entry »
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Deals in Bankrupt Subdivisions?
September 3rd, 2009 Categories: For Buyers, For Sellers
I recently took some buyers out looking at houses in an area with a lot of bankrupt subdivisions. The houses were, in many cases, quite attractive and priced very competitively.
But there are a lot of considerations that buyers need to weigh before buying a home in a subdivision where the developer has gone out of business… Read the rest of this entry »
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Police Response time… 15 minutes.
August 30th, 2009 Categories: For Buyers, For Sellers
The listing said to call before visiting the home. The listing sheet said that the alarm code was in the lockbox. I called… the agent reiterated that the alarm code was in the lockbox.
The house had a keypad deadbolt. The lockbox contained a code that accessed the deadbolt.
It was NOT the same code as the alarm… The alarm code was Read the rest of this entry »
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